Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 10.654604 12.222509 13.915499 15.876191 18.081030 20.480374 23.285569
2025-04-27 8.387626 10.510240 12.983104 16.063621 19.784010 24.117001 29.529467
2025-05-04 7.119931 9.447593 12.295141 16.010421 20.702416 26.401015 33.812672
2025-05-11 6.064074 8.477966 11.564699 15.762786 21.279106 28.230648 37.596094
2025-05-18 5.363185 7.845807 11.144095 15.792110 22.108635 30.319414 41.711572
2025-05-25 4.845586 7.388361 10.885964 15.975328 23.103090 32.627393 46.189779
2025-06-01 4.355000 6.905114 10.529166 15.962519 23.787322 34.511748 50.150487
2025-06-08 3.898750 6.417930 10.111312 15.807802 24.230041 36.050888 53.674495
2025-06-15 3.582892 6.106153 9.913188 15.939276 25.064391 38.150019 58.052153
2025-06-22 3.387858 5.960449 9.944992 16.402444 26.394247 41.002268 63.619859
2025-06-29 3.069886 5.583234 9.583435 16.225973 26.734752 42.405094 67.112322
2025-07-06 2.662506 5.015838 8.870634 15.437475 26.070093 42.254005 68.255374
2025-07-13 2.517374 4.888954 8.871004 15.804731 27.255173 44.989867 73.938738
2025-07-20 2.371415 4.746574 8.833351 16.104167 28.345341 47.628858 79.594694
2025-07-27 2.174436 4.490585 8.577725 16.011665 28.776970 49.236188 83.685258
2025-08-03 1.975525 4.210496 8.255646 15.777441 28.949559 50.424521 87.145738
2025-08-10 1.834829 4.027483 8.090722 15.802110 29.552565 52.324534 91.816429
2025-08-17 1.728963 3.902336 8.020378 15.987076 30.434773 54.713091 97.371830
2025-08-24 1.606521 3.731174 7.849463 15.973687 30.961513 56.521387 102.027516
2025-08-31 1.478050 3.534259 7.612883 15.819070 31.221085 57.878068 105.966257
2025-09-07 1.393551 3.422321 7.532134 15.950559 31.999117 60.147497 111.530710
2025-09-14 1.350854 3.397514 7.622033 16.414046 33.407282 63.564380 119.190000
2025-09-21 1.245810 3.222597 7.393715 16.237454 33.607247 64.855605 123.192860